Recent political developments at the start of the new year have made it clear that critical minerals have become one of the most important arenas of global geopolitical competition. Political changes in Venezuela and the swift response from the United States signal a deeper shift in the geoeconomic balance of power—where access to strategic mineral resources is no longer merely an economic issue, but a matter closely tied to national security, advanced technologies, and the future of industrial systems.
Venezuela and the Strategic Importance of Mineral Resources
In the 1990s, mining exports accounted for around 6% of Venezuela’s total exports. However, following the nationalisation of the private sector, much of the country’s mining production collapsed. Despite this decline, Venezuela still holds substantial reserves of critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements such as coltan and thorium, as well as gold and iron—materials that are essential for advanced manufacturing, clean energy technologies, and defence industries.
Supply Chain Control and China’s Dominance
A key turning point in recent developments was China’s decision to impose export controls on several rare earth elements. This move caused significant disruption across US and European defence, aerospace, and semiconductor industries. Currently, approximately 74% of rare earth elements consumed by the United States are imported from China, while nearly 90% of midstream processing capacity is also concentrated there. This level of concentration presents major strategic risks for Western economies.
In response, the United States has accelerated efforts to achieve greater independence in critical mineral and rare earth supply chains, supported by billions of dollars in investment over recent years. These efforts have been accompanied by a more assertive foreign policy approach focused on securing access to strategic resources.
Critical Minerals as the New Oil
In today’s global landscape, critical minerals have effectively become the “new oil.” Governments around the world are reassessing or developing national strategies to secure long-term access to these materials. While the urgency and scale of action vary by country, the shared objective is clear: to reduce dependency, strengthen supply chain resilience, and ensure stable access to essential raw materials.
The UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy: Vision 2035
At the end of November, the United Kingdom launched its latest critical minerals strategy, Vision 2035. The strategy highlights the scale of future demand growth, noting that the requirement for certain materials will increase dramatically. For example, lithium demand is expected to rise by more than 1100% by 2035.
The core objective of the strategy is to ensure that the UK has access to the critical minerals required to support economic growth and the transition to clean energy, while leveraging its competitive advantages in midstream processing and recycling.
Under this strategy:
- 10% of annual demand is targeted to be met through domestic production
- 20% through recycling
- and reliance on any single country should not exceed 60%, particularly in the case of China
Implementation Challenges and Financing Gaps
Despite the strategic framework, the primary challenge lies in execution. The £50 million allocated to support the strategy is widely viewed as insufficient, with a strong focus on early-stage initiatives. However, one of the most vulnerable and strategically important parts of the supply chain—industrial-scale midstream processing—requires significantly greater and more targeted investment.
In addition, structural constraints within public financing institutions have limited their ability to support high-potential critical mineral projects. As a result, many strategically valuable projects struggle to secure government-backed funding, making it difficult to bridge the so-called “valley of death” between development and commercial scale.
The Role of Technology in Supply Chain Resilience
Advanced processing and conversion technologies can play a decisive role in strengthening supply chain resilience. Expanding the ability to convert a broad range of elements into metals and alloys—particularly for use in high-value sectors such as semiconductors, aerospace, defence, nuclear energy, and advanced manufacturing—is essential for reducing strategic dependency and enhancing industrial autonomy.
Conclusion
Recent developments demonstrate that competition over critical minerals has entered a new phase. Countries that succeed in building diversified, resilient, and technology-driven supply chains will gain a decisive advantage in the future global economic and industrial order. In this environment, strategy alone is not enough—swift action, targeted investment, and effective collaboration between government and industry will determine success.
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